The company added that changes in natural gas prices will cut upstream earnings by $100 million to $300 million in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, and changes in industry margins will reduce energy product earnings by $300 million to $700 million in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

 

However, Exxon Mobil also noted that improved fuel production margins partially offset the profit decline caused by lower oil prices by $700 million; lower chemical product margins and asset impairments weighed on profits; asset sales boosted fourth-quarter earnings by approximately $800 million quarter-on-quarter.

 

Exxon Mobil is the first major energy company to issue quarterly earnings guidance weeks before the official start of earnings season. Driven by rising oil supplies from OPEC+ and its competitors, coupled with slowing global demand growth, oil prices fell nearly 20% cumulatively in 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2020.

 

The outlook for oil prices in 2026 remains uncertain. Although OPEC+ confirmed last weekend that it will maintain current oil production policies through the first quarter of 2026, the market widely expects a significant oil supply surplus this year if demand fails to recover notably.

 

Meanwhile, as signs of a global oil supply surplus become increasingly evident and oil prices stay depressed, U.S. President Trump launched a "decapitation" military operation against Venezuela last weekend and forcibly arrested Venezuelan President Maduro, afterward calling on U.S. oil companies including Exxon Mobil, Chevron (CVX.US) and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) to invest tens of billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s energy industry. Executives from these oil companies are scheduled to meet with White House officials on Friday to discuss the matter.

 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves at 303 billion barrels. However, to restore the country’s oil production to its peak of 3.5 million barrels per day reached in the 1990s, U.S. energy giants including Exxon Mobil still face a long and costly road ahead.

 

Based on estimates by consulting firm Rystad Energy, approximately $53 billion in investment will be needed over the next 15 years just to maintain the current output level of around 1.1 million barrels per day; while raising production to 3 million barrels per day by 2040 would require capital expenditures to surge to over $183 billion, more than three times the current level.

 

Furthermore, who will hold power in Venezuela and the stability of the government are also critical issues for U.S. energy giants. They also need to confirm the long-term stability of the legal and fiscal systems, as energy investments are typically 30-year projects.

 

Another key concern is whether Venezuela could return to a regime similar to the Maduro era in the future and renationalize oil assets. Venezuela has nationalized oil assets twice in history, causing heavy losses for U.S. oil companies, which now fear facing similar risks again.

 

If these U.S. energy giants heed Trump’s call and invest tens of billions of dollars in Venezuela to revive its oil output, it could become a bearish factor for the future oil market.

 

David Goldwyn, a U.S. energy industry advisor and former senior State Department energy official during the Obama administration, said: "If Venezuela’s future has any impact on the market, it will be a bearish one, because Venezuela’s production really has nowhere to go but up."

 

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, estimated that if Venezuela’s future new government can lift sanctions and attract foreign investors back, Venezuela’s oil exports could approach 3 million barrels in the medium term.

 

The latest moves by the U.S. government also appear to validate such concerns. Trump said yesterday that Venezuela’s interim government will hand over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States.

 

White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the U.S. government "has begun marketing Venezuelan crude oil to global markets."

 

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright further declared that the United States will control Venezuelan oil sales "indefinitely." He also noted that the U.S. near-term goal is to stabilize and grow Venezuela’s oil production by supplying heavy crude diluents, parts, equipment and services.

 

He added that the U.S. will create conditions for large American oil companies to enter Venezuela, and the Trump administration is also considering establishing a compensation mechanism for U.S. oil firms investing in the country.

 

However, some analysts believe that even if large U.S. oil companies invest hundreds of billions of dollars in Venezuela at Trump’s request, the country’s oil production will struggle to see a substantial increase in the coming years.

 

Wright also said Venezuela’s daily oil production may rise by several hundred thousand barrels in the next few years, but returning to historical highs would still require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and "a considerable amount of time."