Trump made the remarks at a press conference held on the same day after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled his tariff policy illegal. He also said the 10% tariff policy is expected to take effect "within approximately three days".

 

Analysts pointed out that unlike the additional tariffs Trump imposed previously, under the said provision, the new tariff can only last for a maximum of 150 days unless Congress approves an extension.

 

Earlier on February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lack clear legal authorization. However, the ruling only restricts the president from imposing tariffs through the IEEPA, and does not completely strip his power to levy tariffs. The U.S. Supreme Court also did not give a clear explanation on whether the already collected tariffs should be refunded and how the refund would be handled.

 

In response, Trump claimed he has many "other options" and announced that the U.S. government will launch several so-called "unfair trade practices" investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 "to protect our country from unfair trade practices by other countries and enterprises".

 

Trump also posted on social media the same day, stating that all tariffs imposed by the U.S. on the grounds of "national security", as well as tariffs levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, will remain in effect.

 

In addition, Trump admitted at the press conference that the Supreme Court ruling will trigger a prolonged legal battle, and that a lawsuit over whether the federal government must refund tens of billions of dollars in tariffs to U.S. companies could "last for five years".

 

Economists at the Wharton Budget Model of the University of Pennsylvania have estimated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the IEEPA have exceeded $175 billion. Following the Supreme Court ruling that they are illegal, this sum may need to be refunded.

 

On the international situation, Trump held a breakfast meeting with U.S. governors at the White House on the morning of February 20 local time. When asked by reporters on site "if Iran does not reach an agreement, are you considering a limited military strike", Trump replied: "The most I can say is — I am considering it."

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in an interview on February 20 that Iran and the United States held "very good negotiations" in Geneva this week, discussing issues related to the nuclear program and U.S. sanctions, and reached a consensus on a set of principles or guidelines for the negotiations and the possible form of an agreement. Iran decided to draft a possible agreement for discussion at the next negotiation. Araghchi pointed out that after approval from superior authorities, Iran will send the draft agreement to the United States. He said Iran "will finalize the draft agreement within the next 3 days".

 

 

On the evening of February 20, data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. PCE Price Index for December 2025 rose 2.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 2.8%; the monthly increase was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%.

 

The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for December 2025 rose 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.8%; the monthly increase was 0.4%, also above the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%.

 

Meanwhile, the BEA also released U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The initial annualized quarterly rate of real U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, lower than the estimated 3.0% and the previous value of 4.4%. U.S. full-year GDP growth for 2025 was 2.2%, lower than the 2.8% in 2024.

 

White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said Friday's GDP report was "somewhat disappointing".

 

Notably, before the report was released, Trump posted on social media: "The government shutdown has cut U.S. GDP by at least two percentage points. That's why they (the Democrats) want to shut it down again on a small scale. No more shutdowns! Also lower interest rates. 'Mr. Too Late' Powell is the worst!"

 

Affected by the latest economic data, traders believe the Fed may wait until July this year to cut interest rates.

 

In commodities, gold and silver prices surged sharply in early trading today. As of the close, London spot silver skyrocketed 8.19%, and the main New York silver futures contract surged nearly 9%. London spot gold and the main New York gold futures contract rose more than 2%.

 

During the Spring Festival holiday, gold and silver prices were under pressure. Spot gold once fell below the $5,000 per ounce mark, and silver prices fluctuated even more sharply.

 

"The sharp fluctuations in overseas gold and silver prices during the Chinese Lunar Spring Festival are basically in line with market expectations." Wei Chuntao, a precious metals analyst at Chuangyuan Futures, gave two reasons: first, the precious metals market lacked participation from Chinese investors. As the world's largest gold consumer, China's gold consumption accounted for more than 20% of the global total in 2025, and the absence of Chinese investors inevitably affected the market's pricing efficiency. Second, the precious metals market itself had a demand for active adjustment. Gold above $5,000 per ounce and silver above $80 per ounce had accumulated a large number of profit-taking positions, making it difficult to continue rising without sufficient technical adjustment and market psychological repair.

 

"During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver prices showed a trend of 'narrow range fluctuation, weak first and then strong'." Wang Wenhu, a non-ferrous and precious metals analyst at Hongyuan Futures, said that U.S. January inflation data weakened, but some Fed officials still worried about inflation rebound and supported a pause in rate cuts, keeping the earliest expected rate cut in June. At the same time, many U.S. economic data performed well, supporting the dollar index to fluctuate higher. However, geopolitical risks still exist, and the U.S. continues to deploy troops around Iran, threatening a possible military strike as early as February 21, providing safe-haven support for precious metals.

 

Recently, the Fed released the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting. Although the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate in the target range of 3.50%~3.75%, there were significant internal differences on the subsequent rate cut path. Regarding the market's concern about the scenario of "delayed rate cuts or even rate hikes", the two analysts gave interpretations from different perspectives.

 

Wei Chuntao believes that the Fed's policy path depends on three factors: first, whether the smooth handover between the new and old chairs can be achieved, which is related to the independence of the Fed's monetary policy; second, core data such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, financial market and inter-bank liquidity; third, the coordination between the policy goals of the Trump administration and the Fed's monetary policy goals. "Judging from the many macro data released, the possibility of a rate hike is currently low."

 

Wang Wenhu, on the other hand, believes that if the Fed delays rate cuts or even rate hike expectations emerge, coupled with new agreements between Russia-Ukraine or U.S.-Iran, precious metals prices will undergo an adjustment. He expects London spot gold to have a 10% correction space above $5,000 per ounce, although this adjustment space is based on an extreme assumption of multiple negative factors overlapping.

 

Is the core logic supporting gold prices in 2026 still solid?

 

"The bullish logic for gold remains: central bank gold purchases, global de-dollarization, Fed rate cut expectations, rising geopolitical risks, etc." Wei Chuntao reminded that the foundation and core logic of the "bull market" are still there, but that does not mean risk management can be ignored.

 

Against the background of geopolitics and the dollar trust crisis, Wang Wenhu believes that countries will continue to implement fiscal expansion policies, which will lead to the decline of sovereign currency credit, thus driving central banks of many countries to actively increase their gold holdings.

 

Regarding the policy orientation of Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh, Wang Wenhu analyzed that in his proposal of "rate cuts + balance sheet shrinkage", rate cuts can not only meet the Trump administration's demand for lower interest rates but also support corporate financing; however, balance sheet shrinkage may be difficult to implement due to U.S. fiscal expansion policies and liquidity issues. In the medium and long term, the core logics such as Fed rate cut expectations, declining currency credit of various countries, and global central bank gold purchases have not changed significantly, and will still support precious metals prices to hit new record highs.