Subsequently, a report released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that private-sector job growth in October was slightly stronger than expected, bringing some hope to the sluggish labor market. After the data release, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened mixed.

 

The ADP report showed 42,000 jobs added in October, exceeding the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 22,000. September’s employment figure was revised from a decline of 29,000 jobs to a decrease of 3,000. The report also noted that although job growth slowed, wages continued to rise.

 

Fed Governor Milan said the ADP data was a pleasant surprise, that current Fed policy carried risks, that further rate cuts remained justified, and that policymakers should not mechanically respond to stock market gains through policy.

 

Analysts believe October’s ADP employment data showed moderate performance, providing new reference for the Fed’s policy decisions. On one hand, the job market showed signs of stabilization; on the other, the slowdown in labor demand growth requires policymakers to carefully weigh economic trends at upcoming meetings.

 

Previously, Fed officials had expressed concern over employment data, saying focus on the labor market now exceeded attention to the inflation target. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December stands at 62.5%, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous day, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5%, up 7.6 points. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by January next year is 54.8%, with a 25.9% chance of no change and a 19.4% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.

 

There is deep division within the Fed over whether to continue cutting rates. Milan had previously said monetary policy remained restrictive and would continue to advocate for significant rate reductions. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Fed Governor Cook, and San Francisco Fed President Daly all said on Monday that no decision had been made on another rate cut in December.

 

 

According to CCTV News, on November 5 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court held arguments over the legality of the Trump administration’s broad tariff impositions. The case is seen as a major test of President Trump’s authority and whether he can expand executive power, and may affect the global economy.

 

The U.S. Justice Department presented its position first, with D. John Sauer, the Trump administration’s top Supreme Court lawyer and Attorney General, arguing on its behalf.

 

Earlier, on October 30 local time, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution by 51 votes to 47, calling for the revocation of the “national emergency” invoked by the Trump administration to impose so-called “reciprocal tariffs” in early April. Public opinion views this as a strong signal from Congress to constrain the White House’s trade authority.

 

UBS believes that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs illegal, the U.S. government would be forced to refund approximately $140 billion in duties to importers, equivalent to 7.9% of the 2025 federal budget deficit. This would significantly impact short-term fiscal conditions and force the government to use other legal tools to rebuild tariff barriers. If a lower overall tax trade environment emerges without triggering retaliation from other countries, it would ultimately benefit the U.S. economy and stock market.

 

 

On November 5, the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices weakened in early trading, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2% at one point. They rebounded in the afternoon, with all three major indices rising into the close.

 

By the close, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.23% to 3969.25 points, the Shenzhen Component gained 0.37% to 13223.56 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.03% to 3166.23 points. Total turnover in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.8945 trillion yuan, down about 44 billion yuan from the previous session, and remained below 2 trillion yuan for a second straight day.

 

In futures, CSI 300 (IF), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) index futures rose 0.41%, 0.55%, and 0.77% respectively, while SSE 50 (IH) futures edged down 0.01%.

 

Chen Shangyu, head of macro finance at GF Futures, said global risk assets were under pressure this week from weaker macro sentiment, a hawkish Fed tone, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Asian stocks opened sharply lower on the previous day, and A-shares followed suit. However, the market recovered strongly in the afternoon, with low-valuation sectors such as chemicals, coal, and consumption outperforming, showing strong support and making a deep correction unlikely, leaving the medium-to-long-term uptrend intact.

 

Jia Tingting, index analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Futures Research Institute, also noted that despite sharply lower openings due to overnight losses in U.S. and Asian stocks, major A-share indices steadied and turned positive, demonstrating resilience amid external shocks.

 

“Looking at sectors, electrical equipment saw a surge in limit-up stocks, coal and large consumption rose sharply, while tech underwent a correction, showing a clear structural market,” Jia said.

 

Technically, Chen noted that the 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages of the Shanghai Composite are converging after nearly a month of consolidation, paving the way for a potential breakout above previous highs. The 15th Five-Year Plan proposal has provided solid support for economic fundamentals and boosted market confidence.

 

Futures Daily observed that A-share appeal has continued to rise, with investor numbers growing rapidly. Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange on November 4 showed 2.3099 million new A-share accounts in October, down 21.36% from 2.9372 million in September — including 2.3022 million retail accounts and 7,700 institutional accounts. New accounts for the first 10 months reached 22.4588 million, up 10.57% year-on-year.

 

Jia said that with policy support and capital inflows, the re-rating of Chinese assets is ongoing. Valuations are still relatively low, and further economic recovery should lift sentiment and risk appetite, driving major indices higher.

 

“The Central Economic Work Conference will be a key focus in the fourth quarter, with its 2026 policy tone shaping the long-term A-share trend. Overseas, U.S. inflation and jobs data will directly affect the Fed’s easing pace, and Treasury yield moves will shape global capital flows. A dovish Fed shift would greatly ease pressure on emerging markets,” Jia said.

 

Looking ahead, Chen said the fourth quarter should focus on detailed guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference on 2026 development, as well as external demand and yuan exchange rate moves after China-U.S. trade talks. While A-shares have upside potential, structural divergence is likely, with tech relatively expensive and energy and consumption poised to lead the next phase.

 

Jia added that as year-end approaches, risk appetite is likely to decline, favoring more stable indices such as IH and IF.