Disclaimer: This report is compiled from public market information and macro market interpretation only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Trading of precious metal futures and spot products involves high leverage and extreme volatility with risks of principal loss. Please make independent and prudent decisions.

1. Full-day Market Review

As of midday Beijing time on September 23, spot gold (London Spot Gold) was quoted at **$4344.66 per troy ounce**, edging lower during the session. It dipped to an intraday low near $4322 and peaked at $4367, with an intraday range of approximately $45 and a decline of 0.46%. The price remained in a high consolidation pattern amid fierce battles between bulls and bears. The COMEX December gold futures main contract traded at $4381.2 per troy ounce, posting a minor gain of 0.11%. The futures market maintained a slight premium over the spot market, reflecting that long-term investors still held allocation demand for gold. The core trading range was locked between $4300 and $4400.

On the domestic front, the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU(T+D) was priced at 937.35 CNY per gram, up 2.06 CNY per gram or 0.22% from the previous trading day. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 938.1 CNY per gram. The spread between domestic and overseas markets stayed within a reasonable range, and the activity of cross-market arbitrage capital picked up compared with earlier periods. Segmentation was observed in the retail physical gold market: major domestic brands set the quoted price for pure gold jewelry at roughly 1310 CNY per gram. Jewelry gold carried a high premium, with purchasing demand mainly coming from sporadic purchases for weddings and holiday necessities. Investment bars were available at around 950 CNY per gram with a much lower premium. Institutional and individual capital has been flowing into gold bars recently, and physical buying has formed bottom support for domestic gold prices.

In terms of market characteristics, gold volatility has declined markedly compared with mid-to-late August, as the market transitioned from a one-sided trending rally to sideways consolidation. On one hand, consecutive hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials curbed upward momentum for bulls. On the other hand, persistent central bank gold purchases and inflows into gold ETFs firmly underpinned support levels. As a result, a sharp one-sided drop is unlikely in the short run, forming a market pattern of “limited downside on negative news and capped upside on positive news”. Gold ETF holdings data showed total global gold ETF holdings climbed to a seven-month high. Even as the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5%, ETF capital did not experience large-scale outflows, marking a key structural shift in the current market.

2. In-depth Interpretation of Core News

(1) Federal Reserve Officials Deliver a String of Hawkish Remarks; Market Reprices Rate Hike Path

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the latest FOMC meeting, lifting the policy rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range. The dot plot sent a clear signal that another rate hike remains on the table within the year, while the timeline for interest rate cuts was pushed further back. Multiple presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks delivered public speeches this week, repeatedly reinforcing the policy stance that “high interest rates must be maintained for an extended period”.

Susan Collins, President of the Boston Fed, stated publicly that she supported the rate hike. Her core concern was that the decline in US core inflation fell short of expectations. Rebounds in energy and service prices could push inflation back above the 2% target, so the Fed cannot ease monetary policy prematurely. Remarks from Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, were equally cautious. He noted robust resilience in US household consumption and no obvious cooling in the labor market. Input price shocks are fading more slowly than anticipated, raising the risk of entrenched inflationary pressure. He added that future decisions on additional rate hikes will hinge on continued tracking of CPI, PCE and employment data over the next 1 to 2 months, with no advance commitment on the terminal rate.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 53% probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike at the October FOMC meeting, revealing stark divergence over the Fed’s subsequent policy path. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. When markets price in sustained high nominal and real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, and capital tends to shift toward interest-bearing assets such as US Treasuries. This serves as the primary macro factor capping gold’s upside in the near term. It is worth noting, however, that the traditional inverse correlation between gold and Treasury yields has weakened. Even with the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing close to 5%, gold avoided a deep plunge, because central bank buying and long-term ETF capital have altered the underlying demand structure of the market.

(2) Marginal Easing of Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East; Falling Oil Prices Weaken Inflation Risk Premium

Signs of phased easing emerged in geopolitical tensions across the Middle East. Reports indicated that diplomatic communications between the United States and Iran achieved phased progress. Iran signaled that it could consider resuming shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the United States eases military pressure and lifts port blockades. Saudi Arabia also plans to restart its east-west crude oil pipeline to reduce reliance on the single shipping channel of the Strait of Hormuz. Combined, these developments pushed international crude oil lower for the sixth consecutive trading session. Falling oil prices eased market panic over energy-driven inflation rebounds, indirectly reducing the rationale for aggressive Fed rate hikes and offering some buffer for gold.

Nevertheless, market consensus holds that geopolitical risks have only eased rather than been fully resolved. Conflicts in the Middle East are complex and multi-faceted, with repeated games among all parties. Sudden incidents could rapidly trigger risk aversion. Should tensions escalate again and crude oil prices surge, markets will immediately price in rising inflation expectations. Gold would benefit from dual buying momentum from geopolitical safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, resulting in a sharp short-term rally. Such geopolitical shocks tend to generate pulse-style moves with weak sustainability, but they can trigger extreme short-term volatility. Traders need to watch out for gap risks caused by breaking news.

(3) SGE Releases Risk Control Notice for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Holiday; Cross-Holiday Risks Attract Attention

The Shanghai Gold Exchange officially issued risk control arrangements for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Holiday to address gap risks arising from continuous overseas trading while domestic markets are closed. Key provisions are as follows: starting from settlement after the close on September 28, the margin ratio for AU(T+D) and other gold deferred contracts will be raised from 15% to 18%, and the daily limit range will be expanded from 14% to 17%. Margin requirements for silver deferred contracts will be raised synchronously. When domestic markets reopen on October 8, margin ratios and daily limit bands will revert to standard levels after settlement, provided no extreme one-sided market moves occur.

Trading hours differ between domestic and overseas markets. While domestic markets will close for the National Holiday, London Gold and COMEX Gold will trade continuously. Holiday periods are highly susceptible to large opening gaps for domestic markets triggered by overseas breaking news, Fed officials’ speeches, and shifts in Middle East geopolitics. The exchange raised margin requirements to reduce investor leverage and prevent margin call risks caused by sharp gold price swings over the holiday. Institutions generally advise domestic traders to appropriately reduce position sizes and control leverage before the holiday to avoid uncertainties from overnight and cross-holiday gaps.

(4) Global Gold Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Sustained Central Bank Buying Underpins Prices; China’s Gold Imports Surge

Data tracked by the World Gold Council shows that the seasonally adjusted average monthly net gold purchases by central banks worldwide remained near 91 tons over the past three months. As a special category of long-term buyers, central banks purchase gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves and hedge against US dollar credit risks. This capital is largely insensitive to interest rates and will not sell gold simply due to short-term rises in US Treasury yields or Fed rate hikes, forming rigid buying demand that provides solid long-term bottom support for gold prices. Historically, global central banks shifted from net sellers to persistent net buyers after 2000, and purchase volumes have expanded sharply in the past three years. This is the core underlying logic of the current major gold cycle and has significantly reduced gold’s sensitivity to real interest rate fluctuations.

Domestic physical gold supply data also showed strong performance. As of August 2026, China’s total gold imports exceeded 1,000 tons, surpassing the full-year import volume of 2025. Domestic demand for physical gold investment remained robust. On one hand, ordinary residents’ demand for gold bars and coins kept rising. On the other hand, various domestic asset management institutions increased gold allocation in multi-asset portfolios to hedge against portfolio drawdown risks from stock market and exchange rate volatility. Strong physical demand supported domestic gold prices to remain relatively resilient compared with international gold.

3. Summary of Views from Major Investment Banks

Bullish Institutions (Long-term Perspective)

Goldman Sachs maintained its long-term bullish stance in the latest precious metals research report. It revised down its fair value target for gold at the end of 2026 to $4650 per troy ounce, affected by upward revisions to expectations for prolonged Fed high interest rates, while keeping its end-2027 target unchanged at $5400 per troy ounce. Goldman Sachs emphasized that short-term Fed monetary tightening will cap the pace of gold’s rally, but it will not reverse the long-term upward trend of gold. Once US fiscal deficits and debt issues continue to worsen and pressure the US dollar’s credit, coupled with uninterrupted central bank gold purchases, gold’s valuation center will keep moving higher.

UBS Wealth Management holds a view similar to Goldman Sachs, retaining its target of $4600 per troy ounce for December 2026 and $5400 per troy ounce for September 2027. UBS researchers observed that inflows into gold ETFs have broadened. Capital inflows originally mainly came from China, while institutional capital from Europe has also begun to accumulate gold ETF holdings recently, showing that demand for diversified asset allocation is spreading globally. Citi and Standard Chartered remain optimistic. Citi set a 6–12 month target of $5000 per troy ounce, and Standard Chartered’s 3-month target stands at $4750 per troy ounce.

The Global Macro Head at Fidelity Investment proposed a paradigm shift in gold pricing. For decades, market analysis of gold centered on real interest rates. Currently, the main pricing drivers have shifted to the global liquidity cycle and US fiscal and debt pressures. Based on a global broad money M2 model, the long-term theoretical fair value of gold could reach $5000 per troy ounce. This view argues that continuously expanding US fiscal deficits and mounting government debt will steadily erode the long-term purchasing power of the US dollar, triggering a revaluation of gold as hard currency. Nevertheless, model valuations are only long-term estimates. Short-term price action will still be disturbed by Fed policy, the US dollar and Treasury yields, with sideways volatility as the norm, and there is no guarantee gold will hit the target level immediately.

Cautiously Bearish Institutions (Short-term Trading Perspective)

Research teams at some futures brokerages warned of near-term risks. They believe US economic resilience has exceeded expectations, with strong labor market and consumption data, and sticky inflation. The period during which the Fed maintains high interest rates will be far longer than markets previously anticipated. Sustained high levels of long-term US Treasury yields and a sideways-strong US dollar suggest gold will most likely stay range-bound in the short run, and there is even potential for further pullbacks to test lower support levels. These institutions advise short-term traders against blindly chasing bullish momentum. They recommend waiting for clear signs of weakening inflation and employment data before reassessing long opportunities.

Research institutes of domestic futures firms hold a neutral bias. At present, gold sits in a state of balance between bullish and bearish forces. Upside is capped by Fed rate hike expectations and Treasury yields, while downside is supported by three factors: central bank purchases, ETF inflows and physical buying. A decisive trending market requires strong catalysts. Ahead of the release of key US data, a range-bound strategy is preferred for trading, with strict stop-loss controls and vigilance over sharp volatility triggered by news.

4. Key Events to Monitor Going Forward (in chronological order)

1. Preliminary US September Manufacturing and Services PMI: Reflect corporate business sentiment. Sub-index price indicators will directly affect inflation expectations and disturb interest rate forecasts and gold prices in the short term.
2. Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims: Track the pace of cooling in the US labor market. Persistently strong employment data will reinforce Fed hawkish expectations; rising unemployment claims will lift rate-cut expectations and benefit gold.
3. US August Durable Goods Orders and Final Reading of September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Reflect US household consumption confidence and corporate investment willingness, and assess recession risks for the US economy.
4. US Core PCE Price Index, Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI Inflation Data: The Fed’s two most important monitoring indicators, which are decisive variables for judging whether a rate hike will occur at the October FOMC meeting. Gold is highly likely to swing sharply if data prints exceed expectations.
5. Public speeches by Fed officials, track changes in market pricing of the probability of a rate hike at the October FOMC meeting.
6. Evolution of geopolitical situation in the Middle East and fluctuations in international crude oil prices, monitor news related to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
7. Intraday movements of the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index.
8. Changes in global gold ETF holdings and monthly gold reserve data of various central banks.
9. Margin adjustments and capital position changes at domestic exchanges before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Holiday.