1. International Gold Market News and Price Analysis

During the Asian session on Monday (Korea Time), spot gold in London traded in a narrow weak range. London spot gold was quoted around $4,358 per troy ounce, edging lower on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract in New York traded near $4,405, climbing to an intraday high of $4,422 before falling to a low of $4,396. Fierce battles between buyers and sellers persist, leaving prices trapped in a range-bound tug-of-war in the short term.
 

Looking back on recent price drivers, the Federal Reserve (FRB) held its latest policy rate meeting in mid-September and raised the policy rate by 25 basis points, lifting the interest rate band to 3.75%–4.00%. Under conventional trading logic, rate hikes weigh on gold, an interest-free asset. However, this market saw a classic "sell the rumor, buy the fact" market move. Ahead of the meeting announcement, gold dipped to a low of $4,235 but failed to break decisively below the critical support level at $4,200. After the rate hike was announced, "buy the fact" capital flowed in, and gold rebounded more than 3% from its low, demonstrating the strong underlying resilience of current gold prices.
 

Two opposing forces act on the gold market at present. On the bearish side, senior Fed officials keep delivering hawkish remarks, stressing that US inflation remains elevated and retaining the option of further rate hikes if prices rebound later. Real yields on US Treasury bonds stay high, and the US Dollar Index maintains relative strength, capping gold’s upside and limiting further gains for bulls. On the bullish side, the long-term thesis of central bank gold purchases worldwide remains intact, underpinning gold prices. In addition, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain volatile, and safe-haven capital in the market may flow back into gold assets at any time. Should conflicts flare up again, safe-haven buying of gold will surge rapidly.
 

According to institutional outlooks, many futures institutions expect short-term gold prices to trade within a broad range of $4,200–$4,550. If yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds keep rising, gold may retest support near $4,200. Conversely, a combination of renewed deterioration in the Middle East situation, falling inflation expectations and sustained central bank gold accumulation may push gold to attempt a breakout above the $4,550 resistance level. The market’s current focus lies in two areas: monitoring US inflation and employment indicators to gauge the Fed’s future monetary policy path, and tracking shifts in the Middle East geopolitical landscape. Rises and falls in geopolitical risks trigger sharp short-term swings in gold prices.
 

2. International Crude Oil Market News and Price Analysis

International crude oil slumped during Monday’s Asian session, extending declines for four consecutive trading days to mark the longest losing streak since June this year. The front-month WTI crude oil contract fell to $93.4 per barrel, while Brent crude broke below the psychological threshold of $100 and hit a low of $98.12. After a modest rise at the opening of the session, prices tumbled sharply, with the maximum intraday loss once exceeding 2%.
 

The core trigger for this crude oil drop is positive news emerging from diplomatic mediation in the Middle East. A spokesperson for the Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated at the New York Economic Forum that Qatar acts as a mediator and has maintained continuous contact with the United States and Iran over the past few weeks to push for the resumption of US-Iran negotiations. Senior US officials relayed a message through Qatar that the US hopes to reach an agreement and seek solutions to end the conflict. While the negotiation start date has not been confirmed and no substantive deal has been reached yet, market traders have begun pricing in the outlook of "easing Middle East conflicts and lower maritime shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz". As a result, the geopolitical premium embedded in crude oil prices vanished rapidly, triggering mass liquidation of long positions and precipitating the sharp drop in crude oil prices.
 

Iran has also put forward clear negotiation terms. Senior Iranian officials delivered seven preconditions to the US, including an end to US military operations against Iran, the lifting of maritime blockades, and the release of frozen overseas assets. Market opinions remain deeply divided on whether the two sides can strike a deal. Some traders believe the two parties are only sending diplomatic easing signals, with wide substantive gaps making a short-term ceasefire difficult. Other capital groups judge that the launch of diplomatic dialogue itself represents important progress, and the probability of the worst-case scenario of disrupted crude oil shipments in the Persian Gulf has declined substantially. According to public data from US Central Command, crude oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have rebounded to a six-month high. Improved navigation conditions in the strait have further eroded the geopolitical premium of crude oil.
 

Nevertheless, fundamental market factors supporting crude oil prices remain, so the short-term news-driven decline cannot be interpreted as a trend reversal. Analysts from financial institutions note that crude oil export capacity in the Gulf region is still insufficient compared with pre-conflict levels. Even with parallel operations across multiple shipping lanes, total exports have only recovered to roughly 70% of pre-conflict volumes. Global crude oil inventories stay generally low, and tight diesel supply has not been fully resolved. An oil analyst at Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the crude oil market has merely shifted from a phase of rapidly worsening supply to a phase of easing, rather than entering a period of fully abundant supply. Brent crude has strong support around $100, and conditions for further deep declines are not sufficient.
 

Two major themes dominate crude oil price watchlist going forward. First is the progress of US-Iran diplomatic negotiations; news of collapsed talks or renewed conflict escalation will immediately spur a rebound in crude oil prices. Second are changes in global crude oil demand, manufacturing sentiment in Europe and America, petroleum product inventory data, and OPEC+ production cut compliance. Current market sentiment is highly unstable, and geopolitical news is sudden in nature, making wide intraday swings in crude oil prices highly likely.
 

3. Brief Assessment of Gold and Crude Oil Correlation

The correlation between gold and crude oil has gradually decoupled recently. During the period of escalating Middle East conflicts, gold and crude oil rose in tandem, forming a classic rally driven by geopolitical risk. However, after entering the recent diplomatic easing phase, crude oil plunged first while gold’s losses were limited. This is because gold is backed by multiple pricing factors besides geopolitical safe-haven demand, including central bank gold purchases, the US Dollar and US Treasury yields, giving it stronger downside resilience.
 

If tensions in the Middle East flare up again, gold and crude oil will likely rally in tandem once more. On the contrary, if diplomatic negotiations continue and conflicts subside, the geopolitical premium in crude oil will shrink further, while gold prices will move in response to US inflation data and Fed policy outlook.