Held from August 27 to 29 (Beijing Time), the annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium takes place in Wyoming, USA. This year’s conference theme is Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy. All market attention is focused on the keynote speech delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Wash at 22:00 Beijing Time on August 28. This will be Chair Wash’s first keynote address at this high‑profile event since taking office. No rate‑setting decision will be released alongside the speech, yet it will lay out the Federal Reserve’s core stance on inflation tolerance, interest‑rate holding cycles and future monetary‑policy adjustment paths, directly reshaping short‑term pricing logic for crude oil, gold and foreign‑exchange assets.
 

Global markets are currently caught in a web of conflicting forces. The latest U.S. July PCE price index printed a headline PCE year‑on‑year rise of 3.7% and core PCE year‑on‑year gain of 3.3%, both exceeding market consensus forecasts. Sticky inflation has re‑emerged, eroding optimistic expectations among some investors for rapid inflation cooling. Markets have revised upward the probability of another Fed rate hike within the year. Against persistent inflation pressure, the U.S. Treasury Department has expanded buy‑back programmes for long‑dated U.S. Treasury bonds to ease debt pressure stemming from surging long‑term yields. Intense tug‑of‑war between buyers and sellers persists in the Treasury market, sending the U.S. Dollar Index oscillating at elevated levels. Meanwhile, recurring geopolitical tensions across the Middle East keep shipping‑related risks in the Strait of Hormuz fluctuating up and down, repeatedly resetting risk premiums embedded within crude‑oil prices. Caught between a strong U.S. dollar, high Treasury yields, sustained central‑bank gold purchases and inflows of safe‑haven capital, gold prices are locked in fierce stand‑off around the USD 4,600‑per‑ounce threshold. Major non‑dollar currencies show diverging performances across the globe: commodity‑linked currencies benefit from improved commodity sentiment, while the euro and the yen remain constrained by domestic monetary‑policy realities, trading largely within range‑bound patterns.
 

Global investment banks and hedge funds have broadly reduced positions and cut trading exposure ahead of the symposium. Volatility indicators for major instruments have edged higher, and widespread wait‑and‑see sentiment prevails across trading floors. A large volume of trading orders is expected to be executed only after Chair Wash’s speech concludes, meaning sharp price swings, gap moves and violent rallies‑and‑reversals are highly probable in near‑term trading.
 

International crude oil posted a sharp‑reversal V‑shaped performance during the trading session. NYMEX WTI October crude‑oil futures closed at USD 83.53 per barrel, up 1.58% on the day. ICE Brent October crude‑oil futures settled at USD 89.70 per barrel, marking a 2.12% daily gain. Brent crude briefly

challenged the psychological USD 90‑per‑barrel level. During Asian trading hours, prices slumped by more than 1.4% at one point, illustrating extremely rapid shifts between bullish and bearish momentum.
 

Diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran have continuously swayed market sentiment. Earlier, Iran, in coordination with Oman, floated proposals for consultations over temporary shipping corridors in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets priced in partial relief for Gulf‑region crude‑export risks, triggering an oil‑price drop and eroding portions of the geopolitical tail‑risk premium embedded in prices. Subsequently, U.S. officials explicitly stated there was no near‑term intention to resume full

cease‑fire‑oriented diplomatic negotiations with Iran. Optimism surrounding U.S.‑Iranian détente faded rapidly, geopolitical risk premiums were re‑priced into crude‑oil contracts, and oil prices rebounded forcefully from lows.

Elsewhere, multiple Russian refining facilities sustained attacks, forcing key processing units into shutdown and maintenance and disrupting global refined‑product supply chains. U.S. domestic diesel inventories have fallen to multi‑year seasonal lows, while diesel crack spreads remain at historically high levels. Tightness in refined‑product markets has provided robust underlying support for crude‑oil prices.
 

According to the latest IEA report, although the OPEC+ alliance continues to implement production‑cut agreements, OPEC+’s global crude‑oil production market share has fallen to roughly 40%. The marginal price‑lifting effect of producer‑nation output curtailments has gradually diminished. The oil market has transitioned from supply‑dominant dynamics to a three‑way interplay of supply, demand and geopolitical hazards. Global floating‑storage crude inventories keep drawing down, and on‑land commercial stockpiles are slowly declining, thinning market buffers. However, the recovery momentum of global manufacturing‑sector demand remains muted, limiting upward momentum for crude‑oil consumption and preventing sustained one‑way rallies.
 

Among institutional outlooks, Morgan Stanley upgraded its crude‑oil price forecasts, noting that Middle‑East supply recovery is slower than market expectations. It projects an average Brent price of USD 90 per barrel for Q3 2026, with potential to approach USD 100 per barrel in Q4. Citigroup maintains a relatively neutral baseline scenario: should U.S.‑Iranian negotiations progress and strait shipping resume normal operations, Brent could fall to the USD 60‑per‑barrel range by 2027. Such wide divergence between major institutions highlights that the biggest source of oil‑market uncertainty lies in how Middle‑East geopolitics unfold. The IEA issued a specific risk alert: material shipping disruptions within the Strait of Hormuz would trigger sharp near‑term crude‑oil price surges. Conversely, if conflicts remain contained without further escalation, weak global demand will continue to cap upside potential. Traders should keep tracking strait shipping volumes, U.S.‑Iran diplomatic developments, U.S. crude‑inventory statistics and official statements from OPEC+ producers.
 

Spot gold dipped to USD 4,565.19 per ounce during Asian hours before buying interest drove a swift recovery. It closed at USD 4,601.63 per ounce, posting a modest daily gain of 0.16%. COMEX gold futures settled at USD 4,654.80 per ounce with a small increase. Spot silver tracked broader precious‑metal strength, rising 1.68% to USD 69.26 per ounce, and the gold‑silver ratio improved modestly.
 

Gold price drivers can be split into medium‑to‑long‑term allocation logic and short‑term trading dynamics. In the medium‑to‑long run, sustained official gold‑reserve accumulation by global central banks continues. World Gold Council statistics show official‑sector net gold purchases reached 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, up 62% year‑on‑year and setting a new Q2 historical high. Multiple central banks keep purchasing gold to diversify foreign‑exchange reserves and reduce reliance on single currencies, forming solid foundational support for gold prices. The People’s Bank of China has increased gold reserves for more than twenty consecutive months with no visible slowdown in official buying. Meanwhile, expanding U.S. fiscal debt and rising Treasury‑bond balances fuel market concerns over the long‑term credit profile of the U.S. dollar. Institutional investors keep emphasising gold’s strategic allocation value as an asset hedging credit erosion. Large overseas asset managers including Fidelity International have publicly reported raising gold‑asset weightings within portfolios to hedge Federal‑Reserve‑policy‑related uncertainty.
 

In the short term, global gold ETFs maintain steady capital inflows; SPDR Gold ETF holdings are recovering, and long positioning in futures markets has edged higher. On the other hand, rebounding U.S. inflation prints and persistently high long‑term Treasury yields exert tangible downward pressure on bullion, leaving gold trapped in choppy conditions amid offsetting bullish and bearish forces. The Jackson Hole speech represents the dominant near‑term variable. Should Chair Wash strike a hawkish tone, stress that inflation risks remain unresolved and keep further‑rate‑hike options open, Treasury yields will likely push higher, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, and gold will face notable corrective pressure. Conversely, dovish‑leaning rhetoric suggesting rates will stay high without urgent additional tightening would send Treasury yields lower and open upside scope for gold toward levels above USD 4,700 per ounce.
 

UBS retains a bullish stance in its latest research report, setting a 12‑month gold‑price target of USD 5,400 per ounce. It nonetheless warns that substantial long positioning has built up following prior price advances, and meaningful correction risks will emerge should macro expectations shift. Silver benefits from dual drivers: industrial‑demand optimism and safe‑haven precious‑metal demand, outperforming gold, while the gold‑silver ratio trends lower. Markets are closely monitoring silver’s correlation with gold.
 

Ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, the U.S. Dollar Index traded within a narrow range. After hitting a one‑week high, it retreated, gravitating around 99.20, with a cumulative weekly gain of roughly 0.3%. Stronger‑than‑expected U.S. July PCE inflation data underpins the dollar. The relative resilience of the U.S. economy versus the Eurozone, Japan and other major advanced economies constitutes the fundamental driver behind dollar strength. That said, massive U.S. fiscal‑debt challenges and policy uncertainty stemming from large‑scale Treasury buy‑back operations prevent excessive further dollar appreciation. Trading sentiment remains broadly cautious; many traders adopt a wait‑and‑see stance, deferring major positioning decisions until after the keynote speech. CME interest‑rate‑futures pricing assigns high odds to a September Fed hold, yet market‑implied probability of a 25‑basis‑point additional hike by December has climbed to around 70%. Shifting rate expectations continue to drive U.S.‑dollar volatility.
 

Performance of major currencies: EUR/USD: Traded largely range‑bound and closed near 1.1652. Disagreements persist within the European Central Bank regarding future monetary policy. Euro‑area inflation decelerates slower than projected while growth prospects soften, putting the ECB in a policy dilemma with lack of strong catalysts. The euro moves passively in response to dollar swings, awaiting Fed signals before establishing directional bias. Divergent monetary‑policy outlooks between the U.S. and Europe dominate medium‑term euro movements.
 

USD/JPY: Traded sideways near 159.35. The Bank of Japan Deputy Governor recently commented in public remarks that timely rate hikes could counter prospective inflation overheating, yet no explicit September‑hike timeline was provided, delivering no fresh strong market signal. Markets still price an 86% probability of a September BoJ rate increase. Yen prospects hinge heavily on actual BoJ policy implementation; near‑term pressure persists alongside elevated volatility risks.
 

AUD/USD: Displayed relative strength, holding near 0.719 to hit a three‑month high. Better‑than‑forecast Australian inflation data lifted market expectations for additional RBA tightening. Improved global commodity‑market risk appetite further favoured commodity‑linked currencies. AUD/JPY also advanced. The Canadian dollar received support from rebounding crude‑oil prices; USD/CAD hovered around 1.387, with oil‑price gains limiting CAD downside.
 

CNY‑related: The official USD/CNY mid‑point was adjusted 29 basis‑points higher to 6.7811 on August 28. Offshore CNY moves in tandem with the U.S. Dollar Index. Exchange‑rate dynamics are shaped by external Fed‑policy expectations, dollar strength or weakness, alongside domestic economic‑recovery sentiment. Markets keep a close eye on timing for China’s domestic growth‑support policy roll‑outs.
 

Elsewhere, the Bank of Korea delivered its second consecutive rate hike, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas also lifted policy rates. Emerging‑market central banks continue to combat imported inflation. Global foreign‑exchange markets are affected not only by Fed developments but also by policy shifts from regional central banks worldwide.