1. Latest Market Overview

International Spot Gold

Domestic Gold Prices (China)

• Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99: Peaked above ¥1,005 per gram, now trading between ¥995‑1,002 per gram. The main Shanghai gold futures contract is fluctuating around the ¥1,000 threshold.
• Retail gold jewelry: Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang offer solid‑gold jewelry at ¥1,392‑1,401 per gram, approaching ¥1,400 for the first time in three months, excluding workmanship fees.
• Bank investment gold bars: ¥1,019‑1,024 per gram, carrying a premium of roughly ¥20 over the raw‑material benchmark price.
• Gold recycling price: Around ¥978 per gram. Recycling is based solely on raw‑material spot prices; craftsmanship premiums are not counted.

2. Key News & In‑depth Interpretation

1. U.S. July PCE Inflation: Sticky inflation cools rate‑cut expectations

• Market impact: The U.S. Dollar Index and 10‑year Treasury yields moved higher. As a non‑interest‑bearing asset, gold faces pressure from rising yields, which increase opportunity costs of holding gold. A stronger dollar also makes dollar‑priced gold more expensive for global buyers.
• Market consensus: The data is not outright hawkish, but a modest adjustment of market expectations. It acts more as a trigger for profit‑taking after the massive rally, rather than a full reversal of the bull trend.

2. Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium: The biggest near‑term market driver

• Market focus: How Walsh assesses U.S. inflation and volatile Treasury markets, and signals on the future rate path. The speech has no Q&A session; minor wording changes can trigger sharp gold swings.
• Two scenarios:
  1. Hawkish tone, emphasizing fighting inflation and leaving further hikes on the table: USD and yields strengthen, gold faces short‑term downside pressure.
  2. Dovish tone, suggesting easing inflation pressure and no urgent tightening: Gold may retest its recent highs.
• Market condition: Ahead of the symposium, large numbers of profitable long positions are being closed, raising volatility.

3. Fundamental Drivers Behind the Gold Surge

1. U.S. Debt and Dollar‑credibility concerns

    

   U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with persistent large fiscal deficits and soaring interest expenses on government debt. Heightened volatility in the Treasury market is pushing markets to re‑price long‑term dollar‑credit risks. Gold, as a supranational hard‑asset hedge, is seeing renewed institutional demand — this is the core underlying driver, not merely rate‑cut expectations.
2. Sustained central‑bank gold purchases underpinning prices

    

   World Gold Council data shows central banks made net gold purchases of 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, a 62% year‑on‑year jump. Central banks diversify reserves to reduce reliance on dollar‑denominated assets. 45% of central banks plan further gold purchases over the next 12 months, a record high.

    

   The People’s Bank of China has increased official gold reserves for 21 consecutive months, with a strong July purchase, providing solid medium‑term support.
3. Capital inflows into gold ETFs

    

   Global gold ETFs reversed multi‑month outflows to net inflows in August. Holdings of SPDR, the world’s largest gold ETF, rose over August. Domestic Chinese gold‑ETF assets also expanded as institutions allocate gold for risk‑hedging purposes.
4. Technical momentum

    

   After a deep correction near $4,000, large buy‑in orders accumulated. Breakouts above key resistance triggered CTA trend‑following buying and short‑covering, amplifying gains. Technical indicators are heavily overbought, creating inherent pull‑back risk.
5. Easing geopolitical risks

    

   Diplomatic progress in the Middle East has reduced premium for conflict‑driven safe‑haven buying, acting as a mild drag on short‑term gold prices.

3. Institutional Outlook

Medium‑to‑long‑term (3‑12 months)

• Supporting factors: Ongoing central‑bank buying; unresolved U.S. fiscal‑deficit risks; potential Fed rate cuts as the U.S. economy weakens; persistent global geopolitical uncertainty.
• Many institutions expect gold could test new highs later this year, though a repeat of August’s one‑sided surge is unlikely; price action will shift to high‑level consolidation and gradual upside.

Short‑term (1‑4 weeks)

1. Massive August gains have built heavy profit‑taking positions. Sharp swings and meaningful pull‑back risks are elevated; chasing highs is not recommended.
2. Near‑term price action is dominated by Fed‑policy expectations. Key catalysts: Jackson Hole speech, upcoming CPI and non‑farm payrolls.
3. Key technical levels for spot gold: Support $4,500‑4,550; resistance $4,680‑4,700. A sustained break below $4,500 would open deeper downside.

4. Upcoming Key Events To Monitor

1. Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Walsh keynote speech (22:00 Beijing time, Aug 28) — highest priority
2. U.S. September CPI inflation and non‑farm payroll data, which will shape the September FOMC outcome
3. Monthly central‑bank gold‑purchase figures and global gold‑ETF holdings
4. New developments in Middle‑East and global geopolitics
5. U.S. Treasury issuance and Treasury‑yield volatility

5. Reminders for Retail Investors

1. Jewelry gold is not investment gold: Retail jewelry includes large craftsmanship premiums. When recycled, only raw‑material spot prices apply. Buying jewelry is consumption, not investment.
2. Gold carries substantial short‑term volatility risk despite medium‑term allocation value; entering at elevated levels can bring large drawdowns.
3. Gold recycling value depends only on purity and weight; be wary of misleading “high‑price recycling” marketing.