In‑Depth Gold Market News

Release time：2026-08-11 Publisher：GINZO

I. Current Market Overview & Recent Price Review

International Market

Spot London gold is currently trading in the range of 4410‑4420 USD/oz. It has surged more than 7% this week, marking its largest weekly gain in nearly seven months. COMEX gold futures hit an intraday high of 4487 USD/oz before pulling back slightly amid volatility.

This rally is driven by multiple converging factors. Gold found solid support near the 4000‑dollar level in earlier periods, with market pessimism fully priced in. Following the weaker‑than‑expected U.S. non‑farm payrolls report, the U.S. Dollar Index declined and U.S. Treasury real yields fell rapidly. Meanwhile, short‑covering by CTA systematic funds accelerated the sharp short‑term rally in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone. A large number of long‑side profit‑taking positions have built up, creating pressure for corrective pullbacks. Key technical levels: primary support at 4300 USD/oz; strong support zone between 4240‑4250 USD/oz. Near‑term resistance lies at 4450‑4490 USD/oz. Sustained breakout above this zone will open further upside potential. A break below 4300 USD/oz will trigger a deeper correction.

From the capital positioning perspective, major global gold ETFs have seen consistent net inflows since early August, and SPDR holdings have gradually climbed from lows. Nevertheless, overseas institutional investors remain divided and have not engaged in frantic aggressive buying. Inflows into domestic Chinese gold ETFs are stronger than overseas counterparts; domestic investors show strong appetite for allocation during price dips. The CFTC speculative positioning report has not yet fully reflected this sharp rally. Subsequent reports will be monitored to gauge whether speculative long positions expand sharply, which helps assess the sustainability of this trend.

Domestic China Market

Au9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange trades around 957‑958 RMB/g. The main Shanghai gold futures contract hovers near 960 RMB/g, while Gold T+D fluctuates around 957 RMB/g. The premium between domestic and overseas gold markets stays within normal ranges, with RMB exchange rate movements generating no obvious additional disturbances.

Retail jewellery gold prices are firmly above 1300 RMB/g. Major brands including Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang quote 1336 RMB/g, and Lao Feng Xiang quotes 1330 RMB/g. Bank‑issued investment gold bars are priced between 953‑966 RMB/g. Raw gold prices from the Shenzhen Shuibei wholesale market stand at roughly 1110 RMB/g, excluding processing fees.

Domestic gold consumption shows clear segmentation, according to H1 data released by the China Gold Association. Total national gold consumption reached 511.412 tonnes, rising modestly by 1.23% year‑on‑year. Gold jewellery consumption dropped 33.88% year‑on‑year, while demand for gold bars and coins jumped 28.42%. Elevated gold prices have dampened consumer willingness for jewellery purchases, yet household risk‑aversion demand fuels robust physical gold bar sales. Heading into the autumn wedding season, offline gold stores report rising orders for wedding gold sets. Meanwhile, the gold price surge has driven a sharp increase in gold recycling volumes. Market activity has intensified on both fronts: new physical gold purchases and old‑gold liquidation.

On domestic gold mine supply, domestic raw gold output declined in the first half of the year, mainly due to temporary production suspensions for mine safety inspections. Major Chinese gold groups offset part of the domestic production gap with growing overseas mine output.

II. Full Drivers Behind the Sharp Gold Rally

1. Substantial Weakness in U.S. Employment Data (Primary Trigger)

U.S. July non‑farm payrolls showed a net job loss of 23,000, versus market expectations of 80,000 new jobs. Additionally, May and June payroll figures were revised downward by a combined 103,000. Coupled with ADP private payrolls reporting only 44,000 new jobs, multiple datasets point to notable cooling in the U.S. labour market.

Market pricing shifted rapidly. Market probability for a September Fed rate hike tumbled from 67% to 41.9%. Gold is a non‑yielding asset. Diminished rate‑hike expectations push down U.S. real Treasury yields, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a weaker U.S. dollar provides direct upside impetus for precious metals.

Important caveat: U.S. manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory. This is not a full‑blown economic collapse, but clear softening in labour conditions. Markets remain highly sensitive to upcoming data. A resurgence in inflation will quickly revive rate‑hike expectations and pressure gold prices lower.

2. Mixed Impacts from Geopolitical Developments

Diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz delivered tentative easing signals, triggering a sharp drop in international oil prices. Lower oil prices ease market concerns over energy‑driven inflation, further reducing the need for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, indirectly benefiting gold.

Nevertheless, overall Middle‑East risks have not been fully resolved. Renewed conflict risks can trigger safe‑haven buying for gold again. Conversely, sustained de‑escalation will diminish safe‑haven premiums.

3. Central Bank Gold Purchases Provide Long‑Term Bottom Support

World Gold Council Q2 data shows global central banks recorded net gold purchases of 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, a 62% year‑on‑year increase and the highest Q2 purchase volume in nearly four years. Poland was the largest buyer in Q2, and South Korea resumed gold purchases after many years. China’s central bank held 76.08 million ounces of gold reserves by the end of July, marking the 21st consecutive month of net gold accumulation. Sustained official physical buying provides absorption during price corrections and limits downside scope for gold.

Surveys indicate 45% of surveyed central banks plan to keep increasing gold holdings over the next 12 months. Central banks aim to diversify foreign‑exchange reserves and reduce reliance on single currencies. These are long‑term strategic allocations; they do not fuel short‑term speculative price spikes, yet constrain the magnitude of deep drawdowns.

4. Improvement in Market Sentiment

Over the past six months, gold underwent corrections that eroded bullish confidence, with ETF outflows and build‑up of speculative short positions. Once fundamental signals shifted, short‑squeeze covering combined with fresh allocation capital triggered this sharp rebound. Note the distinction: central bank buying underpins long‑term price floors, while this rapid short‑term rally is primarily driven by trading capital.

III. Full Institutional Views & Market Scenario Analysis

UBS: Target price of 4400 USD/oz for September, year‑end target at 4600 USD/oz. Optimistic scenario sees gold challenging 5000 USD/oz in H1 2027. Risk warning: A resurgence in inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve policy will trigger meaningful corrections; chasing highs is not recommended.
Citigroup: Base‑case Q4 gold forecast at 4500 USD/oz. Maintains long‑term bullish stance, yet notes that after overbought short‑term conditions, choppy pullbacks are highly likely rather than a straight‑line rally.
JPMorgan Chase: U.S. real interest rates remain the core anchor for gold pricing. Should inflation surprise to the upside, gold risks falling below 4000 USD/oz. It warns against treating this rebound as full confirmation of a brand‑new major bull market.
Domestic Chinese Brokerages: Consensus view holds that persistent central‑bank buying establishes price floors. Still, given the rapid short‑term price appreciation, further price action hinges heavily on upcoming U.S. inflation prints. Persistently high CPI could terminate this rebound; sustained cooling in inflation is required to extend the uptrend.

Two forward‑looking scenarios:

Scenario A (Bullish Continuation): U.S. CPI and PCE inflation keep cooling while labour data further softens. Federal Reserve delivers dovish rhetoric. Gold may test 4500‑4600 USD/oz.
Scenario B (Correction Risk): Inflation rebounds and CPI exceeds market consensus. Fed officials deliver hawkish public remarks, markets reprice rate hikes. Gold will likely retrace toward 4200‑4000 USD/oz.

IV. Key Upcoming Data & Events Schedule (Directly Drive Near‑Term Gold Direction)

August 13, 20:30 UTC‑4 U.S. July CPI Release: This week’s most critical data point. Higher‑than‑expected inflation → bearish for gold; notable inflation cooling → bullish for gold. U.S. PPI will be released concurrently to observe inflation transmission.
August 21, 02:00 UTC‑4 FOMC July Meeting Minutes: Markets will assess internal official disagreements regarding rate hikes, inflation and employment. Hawkish leaning among officials will weigh on gold.
August 28 U.S. Core PCE Price Index: The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation gauge, second‑only to CPI in market importance.
August 29‑31 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium: Fed Chair and senior officials deliver public speeches. Major monetary‑policy signals have historically emerged from this venue, frequently triggering sharp swings in gold prices.

V. Summary of Market Risks

Gold’s rapid short‑term rally has pushed technical indicators into overbought territory. Large profit‑taking positions have accumulated, raising risks of abrupt high‑level volatility and pullbacks. Chasing prices at elevated levels carries significant risk.
U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy remain decisive drivers. Employment data serves only as an early warning signal. Sticky inflation will prevent a meaningful policy pivot, exposing this rally to substantial correction risk.
Central‑bank gold purchases provide long‑term downside protection; they reduce drawdown magnitude but cannot guarantee perpetually rising prices. Central‑bank buying alone does not equal unlimited gold upside.
Domestic Chinese gold prices are subject to dual drivers: international gold quotes and RMB exchange‑rate fluctuations. Sharp RMB moves can trigger independent domestic price swings.