I. Real-Time Prices and Intraday Trends (Beijing Time 06:00–10:00 Asia Trading Hours)

1. Brent Crude September Front-Month Contract

    

   The benchmark closing price last Friday stood at $88.27 per barrel. The market gapped sharply higher at the opening on Monday, immediately breaking above the key $90 per barrel mark. The first rally in the early morning hit an intraday peak of $91.42 per barrel, representing a maximum intraday gain of 3.8%. Later in the early session, profit-taking by long traders triggered a mild pullback; the core transaction price stood at $91.04 per barrel at 06:50, up 3.34%. Between 09:00 and 09:54, prices consolidated sideways at $90.74 per barrel with gains narrowing to the 2.8% range. Brent maintained robust momentum above $90 throughout the morning, hitting its highest level since June 11. It posted a cumulative weekly surge of 15.9% last week, marking the largest single-week gain since April this year.
2. WTI Light Sweet Crude August Front-Month Contract

    

   WTI closed at $81.78 per barrel last Friday and staged a parallel sharp gap-up opening. Its intraday high reached $84.60 per barrel with a peak gain of 3.1%. The primary traded price hit $84.25 per barrel at 06:50, rising 3.02%. In the second half of the Asian morning, WTI edged lower alongside Brent, fluctuating within the $83.8–$84.4 range from around 09:00, with intraday gains stabilizing between 2.2% and 2.7%. Last week’s total advance hit 15.5%, the strongest weekly rally since early March this year.
3. Spread and Crack Spread Performance

    

   The Brent-WTI spread widened to $6.4 per barrel in the Asian morning, expanding by $0.5 from Friday’s close. This reflects heightened market concerns over global benchmark supply shortages stemming from disrupted Middle Eastern exports. Gasoline and heating oil futures climbed in tandem; US gasoline rose more than 2.1% intraday, fully pricing in demand expectations for America’s summer driving season, pushing the entire energy complex higher. The US Dollar Index dipped slightly by 0.15% to 104.1 from 104.3 overnight, offering mild supportive tailwinds for crude bulls.

II. Core Catalyst for Morning Surge: Strait of Hormuz Shipping Crisis (Primary Bullish Driver)

1. On July 19, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially announced that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to zero, with no oil tankers or merchant vessels granted transit permission. It explicitly stated the strait would remain closed indefinitely as long as US airstrikes persisted, with no new transit approvals issued. The waterway handles roughly 20% of global seaborne crude oil exports and 30% of liquefied natural gas shipments; prolonged closure would immediately trigger tangible global supply deficits.
2. The US conducted its ninth consecutive night of airstrikes targeting Iranian ports, military industrial facilities and nuclear infrastructure. The US Energy Secretary publicly stated military operations would continue until predefined objectives are achieved. Iran retaliated simultaneously: drone strikes targeted critical oil infrastructure in Kuwait, and multiple foreign tankers attempting to cross the strait were intercepted and forced to halt navigation. Conflict spillover expanded from military installations to energy shipping infrastructure.
3. The Israel Defense Forces raised nationwide military alert levels and closely monitored Persian Gulf developments. Traders feared the conflict could escalate to engulf the entire Gulf oil-producing belt, prompting market participants to sharply lift geopolitical risk premiums, which jumped from $8 per barrel a week ago to the current $14–$15 per barrel range.

III. Balancing Bullish and Bearish Fundamental Supply Dynamics (Secondary Morning Drivers)

Bullish Supports

1. OPEC+ has confirmed a gradual production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August, yet this incremental output is far too small to offset potential supply contraction from a closed Strait of Hormuz. Core OPEC exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait rely almost entirely on the strait for crude shipments.
2. US domestic crude inventories continued drawing down; weekly EIA data showed commercial crude stockpiles fell by 4.2 million barrels, while refinery utilization rates held steady at a high 94%. Summer gasoline demand is steadily draining inventories, thinning the inventory buffer that would otherwise cap oil price declines.

Medium-to-Long-Term Bearish Headwinds (Limiting Unrestrained Exponential Rallies)

1. Non-OPEC producers including the United States, Brazil and Canada are set to deliver a combined output growth of roughly 1.15 million barrels per day this year. If shipping disruptions in the Gulf prove short-lived, this new supply can partially offset supply gaps.
2. OPEC+ retains substantial spare production capacity. In an extreme supply crisis, Saudi Arabia stands ready to rapidly ramp up additional output, with analysts noting expectations of extra supply releases will cap sustained bullish momentum after short-term sentiment-driven spikes.

IV. Demand and Macroeconomic Backdrop Restricting Morning Price Action

1. Near-Term Bullish Factors

    

   July and August mark America’s traditional peak summer travel season, with weekly gasoline consumption data climbing sequentially for four consecutive weeks. Strong refined product prices lifted demand outlooks for crude feedstock. Asian refineries are gradually concluding maintenance cycles, pushing operating rates moderately higher and reviving buying sentiment among physical crude buyers across Asia.
2. Medium-to-Long-Term Bearish Constraints (Unable to Reverse Short-Term Momentum but Capping Upside Ceilings)

    

   Major global economies lack robust recovery momentum. The IEA downgraded its full-year oil demand growth forecast again this month. Rising penetration of new energy vehicles in China has slowed the growth rate of domestic gasoline consumption year over year.
3. Federal Reserve Macro Backdrop

    

   The 10-year US Treasury yield remains anchored at a high 4.55%, with markets pushing out expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The broad strong US dollar cycle has not reversed, weighing on overall valuations for commodity assets. Even amid bullish geopolitical news, crude oil cannot sustain an uninterrupted super bull run.

V. Full Technical Signals for the Morning Session (Intraday and Cycle Structures)

1. Daily Timeframe
    
   Both WTI and Brent have broken above the upper resistance band of their two-month consolidation range, with short, medium and long-term moving averages all forming a bullish alignment. The MACD histogram on daily charts continues expanding upward, signaling ample bullish momentum. However, the RSI indicator has climbed above the 75 overbought threshold, triggering mild profit-taking in the Asian morning, which signals technical correction pressure following the steep consecutive rally.
2. 4-Hour Timeframe
    
   The opening gap created a bullish breakaway gap, acting as a robust support zone. Key support levels stand at $82 for WTI and $89 for Brent. If intraday pullbacks fail to breach these supports, the uptrend will persist. Should the gap fully close, mass long profit-taking will be triggered, sparking a sharp corrective retracement.
3. Short-Term Resistance Targets
    
   Commodity institutions outlined intraday primary resistance levels at $92 for Brent and $85 for WTI. Any fresh headlines signaling further conflict escalation in the Middle East could propel short-term prices toward the $95–$100 per barrel range for Brent. In contrast, diplomatic de-escalation and restored strait shipping would erase most geopolitical premiums, sending prices tumbling back toward the $85 per barrel zone.

VI. Instant Morning Commentaries from Top Investment Banks

1. Goldman Sachs: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than two weeks, Brent crude could surge to $110–$125 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Should shipping resume shortly, price correction support will land in the $70–$75 per barrel range.
2. Barclays: Markets have fully priced in short-term shipping disruptions but have yet to factor in extreme scenarios involving direct strikes on oil production facilities. Every tier of conflict escalation expands crude’s upside potential by $5–$8 per barrel.
3. Regional Asia Commodity Institutions: Chasing long positions on short notice is not recommended amid extreme geopolitically driven volatility, with single-day price swings potentially hitting $3–$5 per barrel. A better risk-reward setup is to establish long exposure on pullbacks to key technical supports.

VII. Core Indicators to Monitor Throughout the Full Trading Day (Dictating Midday and European Session Price Action)

1. High-Frequency Priority Metrics: Real-time shipping updates for the Strait of Hormuz, latest official military statements from the US and Iran, shipping agency announcements regarding tanker attacks.
2. Evening Data Releases: Weekly US EIA crude inventory figures and US manufacturing PMI, which directly sway US Dollar sentiment and oil demand projections.
3. Event Tracking: Public speeches by Federal Reserve officials, which shape rate-cut expectations and indirectly impact broad commodity valuations.
4. Medium-Term Catalyst: Advance signals from the OPEC+ September production meeting, determining whether oil producers will release extra spare capacity to counterbalance supply risks.