1. Overview of Market PerformanceAs of midday on July 9, spot gold in London traded weakly around the $4,070 per ounce mark, extending mild intraday losses. The August COMEX gold futures closed down 1.7% overnight at $4,086.6 per ounce, with the entire precious metals sector sliding and silver dropping more than 4%. Domestic gold markets saw a parallel pullback; the benchmark gold price quoted by the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell to roughly 901 RMB per gram. Retail prices of 999 fine gold jewelry from mainstream brands range from 1,223 to 1,255 RMB per gram, marking a noticeable decline from recent highs.2. Core Bearish Factors Pressuring Short-term Gold Prices(1) Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve meeting minutesThe June FOMC meeting minutes released overnight carried an overall hawkish tone. Multiple committee members warned of sticky U.S. inflation, and some officials voiced support for resuming rate hikes. Market interest rate expectations repriced sharply, pushing the previously priced rate-cut timeline all the way back to 2027. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September now stands close to 70%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 4.56%, alongside a stronger U.S. Dollar Index. Gold generates no interest income, so elevated interest rates raise its opportunity holding cost. Capital has continuously flowed out of precious metals into U.S. Treasuries and dollar assets, directly capping gold’s upside. Multiple overseas investment banks simultaneously cut their full-year average gold price forecasts and year-end target levels, while profit-taking by institutional long positions amplified selling pressure on the market.(2) Middle East geopolitical tensions weigh negatively on goldThe temporary U.S.-Iran agreement collapsed, and U.S. military strikes targeted Iranian-linked assets, heightening geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil prices jumped sharply, with Brent crude surging over 5%. Market trading logic reversed: investors feared higher oil prices would reignite nationwide inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to sustain high interest rates for longer. Safe-haven capital avoided gold and instead rushed into the U.S. dollar, indirectly pressuring gold prices amid the conflict.(3) Sustained outflows from global gold ETFsData from the World Gold Council shows global gold ETFs recorded large net outflows in June, as retail traders and short-term institutions liquidated their gold holdings. Minor inflows persisted in Asian physical gold consumption markets, yet their volume failed to offset the selling pressure stemming from ETF redemptions. Speculative short positions on the London market edged higher, magnifying the scope of the short-term correction.3. Fundamental Factors Supporting Gold Prices Over the Medium and Long Term(1) Central banks worldwide keep increasing gold reserves contrarilyThe People’s Bank of China updated its reserve data on July 7, revealing a monthly gold purchase of 480,000 troy ounces in June—the largest monthly buying volume since November 2024. This marks 20 consecutive months of gold reserve accumulation, with monthly purchases growing larger year to date. Beyond China, Poland and multiple Central Asian nations steadily boost gold holdings, South Korea added gold reserves for the first time in 13 years, and several Latin American countries launched reserve diversification strategies. Institutional surveys indicate over 80% of central banks classify gold as a core reserve asset, and more than 30% plan to continue gold purchases in the next two years. Sustained long-term buying by central banks forms solid downside support near the $4,000 psychological threshold. Physical gold bars in London vaults keep flowing out, as institutions from various nations continuously withdraw bullion for domestic storage; the medium-to-long-term tight physical supply-demand balance remains intact.(2) Downside risks linger for global economic growthThe IMF revised down its 2026 global economic growth forecast. U.S. June nonfarm payroll additions fell far below market expectations, with prior employment figures also revised lower, leaving lingering fears of a medium-to-long-term recession. Should inflation data cool notably in the months ahead, markets will reprice rate-cut expectations, and a decline in real interest rates will reopen upside room for gold.4. Institutional OutlooksGold is expected to trade within a wide range between July and September in the short run, with limited rebound momentum until the Federal Reserve delivers clear dovish signals. The $4,100–$4,120 zone acts as strong near-term resistance, while